It’s hard for some people to accept but suspicions don’t constitute evidence. To understand complex issues there is no alternative to study. That doesn’t mean reading only sources that confirm your suspicions but those that oppose them.
Philosophers & historians have been debating for centuries about how to unravel social complexities but there isn’t one of them that thought it could be done by sniffing one’s way through suspicions. The only thing they did agree on is the need for study.